Using the idea of examining returners from last year's state meet and 3200 times from this spring as an indicator, we turn our attention to who holds strong hands heading into this fall's 3A girls cross country season.
First, the returners (at least as far as I can tell) from the top 50 at last year's state meet in Rio Rancho (a question mark indicates a runner of uncertain year of graduation):
1 Rachel Fleddermann Sandia Prep 19:11.70 --
3 Haley Rach Taos 20:04.70 2
? 4 Taira Whitman Thoreau 20:09.50 3
5 Jordyn Romero St. Michael's 20:15.80 4
6 Karianne Jones Wingate 20:23.00 5
7 Dayna Guerro Socorro 20:27.80 6
8 Shandiin Yessith Shiprock 20:30.10 7
9 Tanaya Belone Wingate 20:32.30 8
10 Hannah Gunther Taos 20:33.20 9
14 Angelica Vega Silver 20:58.30 13
15 Lakota Benally Shiprock 20:59.50 14
16 Mackenzie Serrao St. Michael's 20:59.90 15
17 Clarrisa Trujillo St. Michael's 21:05.90 16
18 Lenandra Willie Wingate 21:08.40 17
19 Jade Dee Shiprock 21:18.60 18
20 Julie Aster Socorro 21:19.20 19
21 Avery Sanders Thoreau 21:20.50 20
22 Anabella Miller Robertson 21:29.40 21
24 Jordin Aguilar Santa Fe Indian School 21:43.80 22
25 Ranai Nez Thoreau 21:47.90 23
26 Bree Tassin St. Michael's 21:48.40 24
28 Emily Nicolaysen Hope Christian 21:56.30 26
29 Alexandra Haigh Hope Christian 22:02.10 27
30 Esperanza Martinez Robertson 22:05.20 28
31 Genevieve Atencio West Las Vegas 22:05.80 29
32 Rebekah Hutchinson Robertson 22:06.20 30
33 Cecilia Gutierrez West Las Vegas 22:07.10 31
35 Shania Vallo Santa Fe Indian School 22:08.80 33
36 Megan Joe Hope Christian 22:09.30 34
37 Mikayla Garcia Pojoaque 22:10.00 --
38 Elena Garcia Robertson 22:12.10 35
39 Summer Villegas Santa Fe Indian School 22:14.00 36
42 Ashley Quam Santa Fe Indian School 22:24.60 38
43 Courtnae Magdelena Santa Fe Indian School 22:30.50 39
44 Felicia Nez Wingate 22:32.90 40
45 Tristen Gonzalas St. Michael's 22:36.00 41
46 Taylor Jones Silver 22:44.00 42
?47 Destiny Robles Silver 22:44.80 43
48 Emily Zollinger Silver 22:45.90 44
49 Alexis Devries Robertson 22:47.60 45
50 Danielle Quintana Santa Fe Indian School 22:48.10 46
And, then, the returners among the top 50 ranked 3A girls 3200 times from this spring (allowing that results from several meets this spring were missed--in fact, we only have records for 27 returners from this spring):
Once you start shaking and sorting this, a few conclusions start to emerge:
1. There is no clear leader (team-wise) going into the season, but Wingate, St. Michael's, Hope Christian, and Santa Fe Indian School each potentially hold strong hands. Each of these teams has every reason to believe they're in the mix going into the season unless a major player or two from last year doesn't show up for cross country in the fall.
2. Not far behind these four teams are Thoreau and Robertson.
3. Taos, Socorro, and Shiprock each boast a strong 1-2 combination, but will need to bring a few more up to speed to be legitimate team contenders in the fall.
4. Pending the arrival of any new reinforcements, there aren't many more teams who even figure to be able to fill out a complete roster with five scoring runners. This can change, however, as runners who may have been hidden from last year's results start showing up.