Brett Fenton and Taylor Potter figure to have a lot more impact in the outcome of next fall's state team title than they had this fall. Photos by Alan Versaw.
Cleveland dominated New Mexico's 5A boys this fall, and Eldorado the girls. Does it look like more of the same for next fall? Let's take a closer look...
5A Boys
Cleveland graduates more than its share. But, it would be premature to count on too much of a decline with Aaron Flores, Preston Panana, and Jared Mayoral all coming back for another tour of the cross country courses. The Storm should be high on the list of next year's contenders.
But, right across town, you should be able to find another contender in the form of Rio Rancho. The Rams bring back a very capable crew in Caleb Eppes, Michael Goke, Abran Ramos, and company. We just might see a 5A race with some real team drama next fall--not that one solid summer of work for one team while the other lets the opportunity slip away couldn't undo all that.
But, we'll hope for the best of competition next fall for now.
Two other teams with real chances to close the gap and be part of the chase are familiar names in New Mexico cross country--La Cueva and Eldorado. La Cueva should come to next fall's table with Brett Fenton and Nathan Buttry leading the pack. That's a nice place to begin. Eldorado looks to have Taylor Potter, Adam Monroe, and Derek Griego back as next year's experienced core of leadership. Their position may be even stronger than La Cueva's. Eldorado may have the deepest returning core of any of the teams mentioned thus far when you add Tim Cutlip into the calculations.
With the apparent top four contenders all coming from the same area, it shouldn't take too long into next fall's campaign to have good reads on the relative strength of these four teams and the quality of their summer training. Suffice it for now to say that all four of these teams have some real reason to be hopeful at this point. Each of the four should be assessing of themselves, even as they rest up a little in the aftermath of the 2012 season, what it will take to get there in 2013.
Down south, Onate and Mayfield both bring back substantial pieces of their varsity rosters from this fall, but the gap between the Albuquerque-area teams and the Las Cruces-area teams looks--at least at this point--to be a gap of some consequence. Hobbs takes some major hits to graduation and will need help to arrive in some form or fashion to be a 5A contender again next fall.
Individually, it seems crazy at this point to think of anyone but Aaron Flores as the favorite, but even there things could happen. How does Flores fare without Luis Martinez as a training partner? Are there others in the field currently on a steeper curve of improvement than Flores? Who will be the most determined over the summer?
When you start asking those kinds of questions, the conclusion that Flores will be the top guy next fall doesn't seem nearly as predetermined.
5A Girls
Eldorado won this year, and they certainly don't lose much for next year. Being twins, the Amberg sisters will both be back. Joining them will be the familiar names of Lia Stefanovich, Coley Norcross, and Jessica DePoy. This much we can say, it's not too difficult to predict what the team with the targets on their backs will look like next fall. Unless, that is, there's a freshman phenom or two in the works for the Eagles.
Cleveland gave the best chase this year, but they'll have to figure out how to give chase next year without Malia Gonzales. Nicolette Pacheco looks to become the big gun for next year, but she'll need help to close ranks in around her.
One team of special interest heading into next year should be La Cueva. After her performance at the state meet, there will be a lot of people looking to Mason Swanson to lead the charge on Eldorado. She certainly seems capable of that much. Kellie Stroupe is nicely positioned behind Swanson, but--like Cleveland--La Cueva will need to see some closing in of the pack to make championship dreams come true.
At the next tier are Volcano Vista and Rio Rancho. VV will lean heavily on Rebecca Castillo and Kaylee Amershek. Rio Rancho will look to Brianna Pribble and Joanna Fernandez.
Onate figures to be the best of the rest--at least on paper--based on this year's results.
Individual contenders could become a fairly lengthy list. You'll want to be sure to include the Ambergs, Mason Swanson, Rebecca Castillo, Nicolette Pacheco, and Brianna Pribble on that list. Maybe the nicest thing about that list is that it leaves a lot of room for dreamers with a strong work ethic to join the list. So, don't be too surprised if next fall reveals a few additions to the list that aren't currently in view.
Brett Fenton and Taylor Potter figure to have a lot more impact in the outcome of next fall's state team title than they had this fall. Photos by Alan Versaw.
Cleveland dominated New Mexico's 5A boys this fall, and Eldorado the girls. Does it look like more of the same for next fall? Let's take a closer look...