Crystal Ball Gazing: 5A Boys

<h3> Breaking down the prospects for New Mexico Track and Field 2012</h3>

Have you ever wondered what the state meet standings may have looked like if you took only the athletes who would be returning the next year?

 

Over the next few weeks, I want to do several things to try to give you reasons to visit the MileSplit New Mexico site, to submit meet results for posting here on this site, and to begin to think of MileSplit New Mexico as a very useful tool to help you analyze high school track and field here in New Mexico.

This article is a first step in that direction. I've loaded last year's New Mexico state meet results (with the exception of the 5A Girls 3200, for which I could find no results) into one combined file for each classification. Actually, that is a work still in process: I have the 3A, 4A, and 5A results done, but not yet the 1A and 2A results. I then did what we do at MileSplit with meet results, processing them so that they appear on athlete pages and in statewide rankings.

Next, I did a meet simulation from all the results I have for the 2011 outdoor season in New Mexico, but excluding last year's graduated seniors from the calculation. On a team-by-team basis, this is what individual event scoring would look like for these returning athletes based on a 10-8-6-5-4-3-2-1 scoring system:

 

2011 NM HS M Outdoor Track Team Scores (Returners Only)

Calculated as of February 04, 2012

These rankings were calculated by scoring the rankings as a meet.We took the individual rankings and relay rankings and scored them as a normal meet: 10-8-6-5-4-3-2-1.

Athletes whose graduation years are unknown were left out of the list.

1. Sue Cleveland High School 76
  Aaron Flores (3200m 6 = 6)
  Brandon Lawrence (400m 6 = 6)
  Cheyne Dorsey (300H 8 + LJ 4 = 12)
  John Wayne Ruggles (800m 10 = 10)
  Kris Martin (100m 2 = 2)
  Luis Martinez (1600m 10 + 3200m 10 = 20)
  Matt Smith (3200m 8 + 800m 4 = 12)
  Nathan Barnes (HJ 5 = 5)
  Reece White (110H 3 = 3)
2. La Cueva High School 57
  Alex Smart (800m 8 = 8)
  Assad Rizvi (400m 4 = 4)
  Ben Anthony (110H 6 + 300H 2 = 8)
  Erich Stabile (LJ 3 + TJ 8 = 11)
  Jesse Arroyo (110H 4 + 300H 3 = 7)
  Mike Walsh (TJ 5 = 5)
  Sean Bapty (1600m 6 = 6)
  Weston Mathis (400m 8 = 8)
3. Hobbs High School 45
  Clay Mossman (TJ 4 = 4)
  Isaiah Lintz (LJ 10 + TJ 10 = 20)
  Jordan Tyler (110H 2 + 300H 4 = 6)
  Justin Kemp (D 6 + J 8 = 14)
  Marissa Triplett (S 1 = 1)
4. Eldorado High School 37
  Douglas Brunson (1600m 4 = 4)
  Jacob Hinojos (HJ 6 = 6)
  John Russo (200m 6 + LJ 1 = 7)
  Shawn Collins (D 10 + S 10 = 20)
5. Clovis High School 36
  Chris Lewis (D 4 = 4)
  Dj Blackmon (HJ 9 = 9)
  Kenneth Betts (D 8 + S 8 = 16)
  Traivon Sopila (100m 3 + 200m 4 = 7)
6. Mayfield High School 34
  Ricky Milks (100m 6 + 200m 10 = 16)
  Rigo Moreno (110H 8 + 300H 10 = 18)
7. West Mesa High School 31
  Chris Kline (100m 5 + 200m 8 + 400m 10 = 23)
  Daniel Salazar (LJ 2 = 2)
  Scott Wesselink (800m 6 = 6)
8. Carlsbad High School 30
  Eric Galindo (100m 10 = 10)
  Richard Hill (J 10 + LJ 6 = 16)
  Zach Leyva (S 4 = 4)
9. Las Cruces High School 28
  Diego Mendez (1600m 3 + 800m 5 = 8)
  Hannah Shoemaker (S 2 = 2)
  Kyton Jurney (200m 2 + 400m 5 = 7)
  Torion Brown (D 5 + S 6 = 11)
10. Rio Rancho High School 27
  Alex Oluyitan (S 5 = 5)
  Connor Brown (HJ 9 = 9)
  Frankie Morlock (LJ 5 = 5)
  Larry Rodarte (1600m 8 = 8)
10. Highland High School 27
  Corey Beck (800m 3 = 3)
  Joshua Horton (S 3 = 3)
  Mustafa Mudada (110H 10 + 300H 5 + TJ 2 = 17)
  Tony McCabe (3200m 4 = 4)
12. Sandia High School 23
  Daniel Cones (100m 4 + 200m 5 = 9)
  Trevor Perkins (LJ 8 = 8)
  Tyler Brooks (200m 3 + 400m 3 = 6)
12. Cibola High School 23
  Evan Schwartz (PV 7 = 7)
  James Chavez (PV 10 = 10)
  Johnathan Thompson (TJ 6 = 6)
14. Alamogordo High School 22
  Mac Shoaf (110H 5 + 300H 6 = 11)
  Trenton Dean (HJ 4 + PV 7 = 11)
15. Onate High School 13
  Ben Mazone (3200m 3 = 3)
  Sal Wright (1600m 5 + 3200m 5 = 10)
16. Volcano Vista High School 8
  Joe Searcy-ortega (100m 8 = 8)
16. Albuquerque High School 8
  Natalia Rivera (J 5 = 5)
  Xavier Ayers (TJ 3 = 3)
18. Rio Grande High School 7
  Dustin Lamar (110H 1 = 1)
  Paul Chavez (J 6 = 6)
19. Gadsden High School 1
  Luis Flores (300H 1 = 1)

 

Admittedly, there are some flaws in this analysis. For beginners, the New Mexico state meet does not use a 10-8-6-5-4-3-2-1 scoring system. The analysis above also omits relays. While it would be nice to project relays for this coming spring, there are no good data from which to project relay results from one season to the next. There may be students represented in the above analysis who no longer attend the schools they competed for last spring. And, of course, an analysis such as this is notoriously bad at picking up those sophomore and junior boys who have taken big leaps since last season.

Still, the analysis gives us some sort of idea of where we stand heading into this spring's season. Once the season starts, of course, it makes much more sense to look at results from this season. The more results that get reported to MileSplit New Mexico, the better resource this site becomes for track and field athletes, coaches, and parents.

In the next few days, I'll continue this look into last year's results to see how they tell us something about the season ahead. We'll look at girls' results as well as boys'. We'll look at each of the classifications along the way. In the meanwhile, if you have Hy-Tek flat html meet results (such as you see in last year's state meet results) from any of last year's meets--such as, perhaps, results from a meet your school hosted--please feel welcome to send those along. I'll post those results and add them to the rankings database.

In any case, please enjoy for now and let me know if you have any thoughts to share about this article.