Is this the year that Fort Sumner's stranglehold on all things 1A girls track and field is broken? Don't bet the mortgage on it.
There is some reason to believe at least one school can create some problems for Fort Sumner, but it might take something close to a perfect state meet to pull it off.
Melrose would be the team that seems to have the positioning, at least in individual events, to make a run. But, you can't project anything well in New Mexico without taking relays into account at some point. There are simply too many points at stake in relays relative to the other events.
At last year's state meet, Fort Sumner took a first and two seconds from the three relays they took to finals. Melrose scored a third, a fifth, and a sixth from the relays they took to finals. That's a big disparity. If the individual points really do end up breaking down as close as suggested in the virtual meet analysis below (which does not use New Mexico style scoring), Melrose will need a much bigger contribution on state Saturday from their relays than they got last year to pull off the upset.
A further complicating factor for Melrose is the fact that, to hold close with Fort Sumner through the individual events, you almost have to assume that Caley and Cara Barnard will take their full allotment of five events in individual events and place well in those events. Nothing of the sort happened at last year's state meet.
So, pending developments from this spring's season, the reasonable course of prognostication seems to be to lean heavily toward Fort Sumner as the favorites until and unless someone else--and Melrose seems the most likely "someone else"--shows they are ready to tighten things up in the title race. Having the top hurdler and top sprinter in the classification coming back from last year will create that kind of magic for you.
As a further note to the analysis below, if Valene Madalena's state cross country race means anything, expect her to score better in distance events than the analysis from last spring's rankings show.
2012 NM HS F Outdoor Track Team Scores (Returners Only)
Calculated as of January 15, 2013
These rankings were calculated by scoring the rankings as a meet. We took the individual rankings only and scored them as a normal meet: 10-8-6-5-4-3-2-1.
Athletes whose graduation years are unknown were left out of the list.
| 1. | Fort Sumner High School | 95.5 |
| Angelica Torres (D 5 + S 8 = 13) | ||
| Ashley Landreth (100H 10 + 300H 10 + 400m 2 + J 3 = 25) | ||
| Codi Ann Scovel-Wood (D 6 = 6) | ||
| Johni West (100H 1 + 300H 3 = 4) | ||
| LaNay Crenshaw (100m 10 + 200m 10 = 20) | ||
| Mckayla Landreth (100H 3 + 300H 4 + PV 4.5 = 11.5) | ||
| Orianna Ortiz (100m 8 + 200m 8 = 16) | ||
| 2. | Melrose High School | 90.08 |
| Addisen Dial (HJ 5 + PV 2.5 = 7.5) | ||
| Caley Barnard (400m 8 + HJ 9 + LJ 10 + PV 10 + TJ 10 = 47) | ||
| Cara Barnard (100m 6 + 200m 3 + HJ 9 + LJ 8 + TJ 6 = 32) | ||
| Kylie Daughtery (HJ 0.25 + TJ 3 = 3.25) | ||
| Taylor Bostwick (PV 0.33 = 0.33) | ||
| 3. | Jal High School | 60.25 |
| Baylie Mcdonald (100H 5 + 300H 1 + PV 7 = 13) | ||
| Kaitlyn Komar (200m 4 + 400m 10 = 14) | ||
| Kayla Montez (200m 2 = 2) | ||
| Morgan Hiebert (HJ 0.25 + PV 7 = 7.25) | ||
| Morgan Komar (400m 6 = 6) | ||
| Sasha Navarrette (400m 4 + LJ 6 + TJ 8 = 18) | ||
| 4. | Cimarron High School | 44 |
| Alex Winebark (D 10 + S 10 = 20) | ||
| Amy Gonzales (1600m 10 + 3200m 6 + 800m 8 = 24) | ||
| 5. | Tatum High School | 42.33 |
| Devanne Sours (HJ 2.5 + J 10 = 12.5) | ||
| Jasmin Belsom (100H 8 + 300H 6 + LJ 5 = 19) | ||
| Karina Cardenas (J 4 + PV 4.5 = 8.5) | ||
| Leslie Sanchez (100H 2 = 2) | ||
| Yesenice Sanchez (PV 0.33 = 0.33) | ||
| 6. | Cliff High School | 39 |
| Isabella Reed (1600m 8 + 800m 6 = 14) | ||
| Katherine Gutierrez (J 6 = 6) | ||
| Kelsey Garner (D 4 + TJ 4 = 8) | ||
| Kelsey Wolf (100m 3 = 3) | ||
| Micah Spurgeon (J 1 + S 6 = 7) | ||
| Taylor Mccauley (D 1 = 1) | ||
| 7. | Logan High School | 36 |
| Leah Taylor (HJ 5 = 5) | ||
| Marissa Miller (100m 5 + 200m 6 + LJ 3 = 14) | ||
| Whitney Cordova (100m 4 + 200m 5 + 300H 8 = 17) | ||
| 8. | Mountainair High School | 34.5 |
| Shawnee Romero (S 3 = 3) | ||
| Tayler Anaya (J 2 + S 1 = 3) | ||
| Taylor Gikas (HJ 2.5 = 2.5) | ||
| Teryn Kayser (100H 6 + 300H 5 + 800m 10 + TJ 5 = 26) | ||
| 9. | Floyd High School | 26 |
| Jasmine Gomez (LJ 2 = 2) | ||
| Monique Gomez (LJ 4 = 4) | ||
| Taryn Lee (300H 2 = 2) | ||
| Tessa Nall (1600m 6 + 3200m 8 + 800m 4 = 18) | ||
| 10. | Carrizozo High School | 19.5 |
| Analicia Beltran (D 8 + S 4 = 12) | ||
| Andrea Beltran (D 3 = 3) | ||
| Shayna Gallacher (PV 2.5 = 2.5) | ||
| Victoria Ventura (S 2 = 2) | ||
| 11. | Coronado High School | 14 |
| Janice Chacon (1600m 4 + 3200m 10 = 14) | ||
| 12. | Santa Fe Waldorf School | 11 |
| Alex Chastenet (400m 1 = 1) | ||
| Rosemary Damianov (100H 4 + J 5 = 9) | ||
| Sophia Richard (800m 1 = 1) | ||
| 13. | Gateway Christian High School | 10.25 |
| Kathryn Hammonds (100m 2 + HJ 0.25 = 2.25) | ||
| Mikayla Patterson-fuller (800m 3 = 3) | ||
| Rachel Cunningham (400m 5 = 5) | ||
| 14. | Desert Academy | 10 |
| Taylor Bacon (1600m 5 + 3200m 5 = 10) | ||
| 14. | Quemado High School | 10 |
| Amanda Sirman (TJ 2 = 2) | ||
| Emily Ferranti (400m 3 = 3) | ||
| Kate Eberle (1600m 3 + 800m 2 = 5) | ||
| 16. | Reserve High School | 9 |
| Amanda Mendez (3200m 1 = 1) | ||
| Larisa Estrada (200m 1 + D 2 + S 5 = 8) | ||
| 17. | Springer High School | 8 |
| Kyra Laumbach (J 8 = 8) | ||
| 18. | Hondo Valley High School | 7 |
| Lauren Gomez (1600m 2 + 800m 5 = 7) | ||
| 19. | Corona High School | 5.33 |
| Allysanne Huey (PV 0.33 = 0.33) | ||
| Christy Huey (HJ 5 = 5) | ||
| 20. | Jemez Valley High School | 5 |
| Valene Madalena (1600m 1 + 3200m 4 = 5) | ||
| 21. | Tse Yi Gai High School | 3 |
| Marilyn Werito (3200m 3 = 3) | ||
| 22. | Clovis Christian School | 2 |
| Amanda Fly (3200m 2 = 2) | ||
| 23. | Elida High School | 1 |
| Marily Varela (LJ 1 = 1) | ||
| 23. | Victory Christian School | 1 |
| Samantha Montoya (TJ 1 = 1) | ||
| 23. | Menaul High School | 1 |
| Isabella Weaks (100m 1 = 1) | ||
| 26. | Animas High School | 0.25 |
| Cassandra Graham (HJ 0.25 = 0.25) |