Jeff Sward is one of the best pole vaulters in the state, regardless of classification, and helps keep hopes alive for a big finish to the season for the Santa Fe Demons. Photo by Blake Wood.
5A
Let's get this out in the clear before we talk about anything else. If season results mean anything, Cleveland is the prohibitive favorite to win this thing.
But prohibitive favorites don't always win the thing. Think of the 1969 Super Browl where the Jets stunned the Colts, the 1969 World Series where the amazing Mels rocked the Orioles' world (those last two examples will provide a clue as to how old I am), and the 1980 Winter Olympics where the US hockey team with a bunch of college players, most of whom either never had a career in the NHL or had only a very marginal NHL career, took on the Soviet dynasty and toppled them in grand fashion (watch the movie Miracle sometime if you need a good pre-meet pump-up activity). Or, to cite an example that predates my time, think of David and five stones versus Goliath with sword and armor. No, the heavy favorite doesn't always win and that's why we actually go to the bother of holding the contest.
Maybe the most important reason Cleveland should win this thing is that probably nobody in the state can match up well across the board with the Storm relays. In all probability, taking down a Storm relay (and especially the 4x100 and 4x200) means another school max loading a relay and hoping for the best. That can be a costly strategy.
Outside of relays, Cleveland figures to score some points by way of Cheyne Dorsey (hurdles, long jump), Luis Martinez (distance), Reece White (hurdles), and sprinters Parker Jones, Brandon Lawrence, and Romell Jordan. There are just so many ways the Storm can take you out.
Alamogordo brings a very good team up from down south. But, the Tigers will need to have a better weekend than they had at the Marilyn Sepulveda meet a few weeks back. Whatever hope they have is predicated on a more or less maximal performance when they get to Albuquerque. Devin Enslen, Mac Shoaf, and Ike Shoaf should be shouldering the biggest of the loads, but others will need to contribute as well.
Darker horses include La Cueva, Hobbs, and Mayfield.
La Cueva likely has the best overall relay potential of these three schools. Unfortunately, La Cueva doesn't look to score as many points as the other two in individual events. La Cueva's best hope for an individual state title looks to be Randy Dias in the 800.
Hobbs has Isaiah Lintz, who may be the best horizontal jumper in the state. Seraiah Pineada is a quality district runners, but one who must deal with the altitude in Albuquerque.
Mayfield, of course, has speed to burn in the persons of Ricky Milks and hurdler Rigo Moreno. But, it's tough to see Mayfield scoring any points in distances over 400 meters or any of the three throwing events.
4A
I'm thinking Albuquerque Academy has the edge here, but not under the old formula. The Chargers are taking a new formula to the state meet this year. In the past, the Red Army has been heavy in distance runners. A few distance runners are still in the stable, and should score a few points, but AA's hopes are pinned more directly on field events this year.
If AA races to another title, you can figure Tyler Root (shot put), Andrew Torres (discus), and Kale Brown (triple jump) are going to play key roles in that triumph. Reid Longley and Ethan Long (both bearing appropriate names for distance runners) figure to add some points in the 1600 and 3200.
Artesia, St. Pius X, and Moriarty are the best of the rest.
Artesia's hopes are anchored in thrower Alex Donaghe and hurdler Pedro Lima. St. Pius X will look to sprinters Charlie Berger and Ryan Rosenthal and, perhaps more than any other team in 4A, to their relays. Moriarty also figures to be very strong in relays, with most of the individual points likely to come from distance runner Austin Anaya.
Because of some high-end talent in the persons of Josh Roybal, Jeff Sward, and Seth Booker, Santa Fe and Bloomfield have the potential to stay in the race for a trophy with spirited efforts. Santa Fe's relay potential seems a bit higher than Bloomfield's, however.
3A
Like 3A girls, this one could get lopsided. Silver has talent and entries in almost every event. Their relays are solid all around and nobody is going to be able to keep Andrew Little (hurdles, triple jump), Branndon Reese (javelin), Brandon Molina (throws), and Dominic Brown (sprints) from scoring points. They'll pick up smaller quantities of points in other event areas as well. It's a lot like competing against Cleveland in 5A.
Lovington appears to have the next best squad. But, outside of pole vault, throws, and relays, the Wildcats figure to have some trouble scoring points. Pole vault works well for Lovington, partly due to the thinness of the competition in this event in 3A and partly because E. J. Stock and Ryan Thomas are very good pole vaulters, but they can't score enough points there alone to make a serious run at Silver. More pieces will have to come together somewher.
Hope Christian, Socorro, and St. Michael's figure to chase from a greater distance. There is no thrower in 3A to rival Jonathan Millar and Ben Sinclair figures to score some points in a variety of events, but Hope is otherwise a little thin on potential state points. Socorro will look to sprinter Ray Vaiza. St. Michael's will lean heavily on Andres Gonzales in distance and Salomon Martinez in jumps. None of these teams, however, has shown a particularly strong relay presence to this point in the season and that fact definitely figures to hobble their state meet chances.
As the disclaimer was with the girls, so it is with the boys: one or two key injuries or illnesses could change a lot in any of the three classifications competing on Friday and Saturday. While we wish for everyone to be competing at their best, the reality is we're too deep into the season to expect everyone to be healthy.